As interest in Bitcoin has grown, many models and metrics have emerged to analyze its value and predict future price movement. One model that has caught the attention of crypto investors is Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F). This tool is based on the estimation of the potential value of the asset, taking into account the speed of new bitcoins entering the market and the number of coins not yet mined. In this article, we will find out the origin of the S2F model and learn how it works.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is a model that estimates the value of Bitcoin based on the ratio between its total "stock" (the existing number of coins) and "flow" (new coins entering the market as a result of mining). The idea behind S2F is that due to Bitcoin's limited issuance, its price will inevitably increase.
The S2F model is based on two concepts:
Bitcoins are limited to 21 million coins. They can be mined by mining. Every 4 years, the bitcoin mining rate halves as a result of halving. This means reducing the reward for miners by half for mining each block. For example, after halving on May 12, 2020, the reward for miners decreased from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins per block.
Halving leads to a decrease in the rate of coins entering the market. Meanwhile, the adaptation and popularity of cryptocurrencies in the world continue to increase. When bitcoin was launched in 2009, its creator probably couldn’t have predicted that BTC would become the official currency of the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2022.
The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model became widely known due to an anonymous analyst known by the nickname "PlanB". This analyst published the model in March 2019 in an article on Medium titled "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity".
How to read S2F?
Let's understand the main indicators of the model:
The blue curve on the chart represents the Bitcoin exchange rate forecast based on the analysis of new coin arrivals and total inventory, taking into account the behavior of the coin in previous periods.
The colored curve represents the real exchange rate of the cryptocurrency.
How to read the S2F color curve:
Red: the beginning of a new stage of Bitcoin rate growth.
Orange: the transition of the coin into an active growth phase.
Yellow: the peak of the growth phase.
Green: a period of course correction after reaching the maximum.
Light blue: a precursor to crypto winter
Blue: crypto winter - a period of cryptocurrency rate decline before reaching cyclical lows.
Our team doesn’t recommend relying solely on the signals of the Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow model to make Bitcoin rate predictions. The history of S2F shows that this model doesn’t always accurately predict Bitcoin’s price.
For example, in the fall of 2021, PlanB assumed that Bitcoin would reach the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. However, in reality, the cryptocurrency's rate slowed its growth and stopped at $68,789 on November 10. When forming an individual investment strategy, we recommend that you combine several different metrics and analytics.
Always do a DYOR (do your own research). You can read our article about proper DYOR on the EXBI blog.